While Canada has a historically high physician-to-population ratio, concerns about physician shortages and burnout, as well as limited access to physician care continues. McMaster University analyzed workforce data for physicians from 1987 to 2020 and adjusted the population size to address population aging and the number of physicians to account for changing hours of work. It found:
- Although the unadjusted physician-to-population ratio in 2019 was 35% higher than it was in 1987, full adjustment showed the ratio to be about 4% lower;
- Measures of physicians per capita need to be complemented with both demand-and supply-side adjustments to inform planning for health HR in medicine; and
- Relying on simple trends in physicians-per-capita ratios for workforce planning isn’t helpful.
Researchers conclude that, while there’s a disconnect between the growth in physicians per capita and reports of physician shortages, adjustments for aging and physician work hours can have a substantial impact for understanding long-term trends in physician workforce availability. They add that planning for physician supply should take adjustments such as these into account, given the length of training for new physicians.